Today I thought I’d look at home records versus road records (2006-2016) and try to figure out which teams took the best advantage of being at home.  Notice, this is not about which team was the best home team, but rather which team was “more better” at home than it was on the road.  (Bad teams were welcome to apply.)  Here’s how I went about it: I brought up the home records from 2006-2016, then brought up the road records, and then subtracted the road records from the home records to get what I’m calling the home advantage.  All data is from pfref.com.

Here is the table of data, sorted by home advantage:

team home record road record home advantage
BAL 0.739 0.432 0.307
SEA 0.693 0.426 0.267
MIN 0.625 0.358 0.267
ARI 0.642 0.398 0.244
HOU 0.602 0.398 0.204
JAX 0.443 0.25 0.193
PIT 0.727 0.534 0.193
SFO 0.574 0.386 0.188
GNB 0.744 0.557 0.187
DET 0.466 0.284 0.182
SDG 0.636 0.466 0.17
CIN 0.608 0.443 0.165
CLE 0.375 0.216 0.159
BUF 0.489 0.341 0.148
ATL 0.614 0.477 0.137
IND 0.705 0.568 0.137
NWE 0.852 0.716 0.136
CAR 0.568 0.46 0.108
DEN 0.636 0.534 0.102
NOR 0.625 0.523 0.102
NYJ 0.523 0.432 0.091
KAN 0.5 0.42 0.08
CHI 0.534 0.455 0.079
WAS 0.443 0.369 0.074
OAK 0.386 0.318 0.068
STL / LAR 0.341 0.278 0.063
TAM 0.409 0.352 0.057
MIA 0.466 0.409 0.057
TEN 0.489 0.432 0.057
NYG 0.557 0.534 0.023
PHI 0.545 0.528 0.017
DAL 0.568 0.58 -0.012

Only one team had a negative home advantage (meaning they had a better record on the road than at home), and that was Dallas.  But Dallas had a winning record both at home and on the road, so nothing to hang their heads about.

I really thought Denver would come out on top of this due to the altitude at Mile High Stadium.  It would have made a nice narrative, but alas, it wasn’t to be.  Baltimore took the trophy in this one.  They were an impressive 73.9% winners at home, but a lackluster 43.2% winner on the road.  (Gamblers take note: betting the Ravens as road favorites might not be a great idea.)

My Saints came in 20th (not great, but not horrible), but on the bright side, like Dallas, they also had winning records both at home and on the road.

For what it’s worth, the average team has a 13.28% better chance of winning at home than they do of winning on the road, or at least that’s the average home advantage according to these numbers and this way of looking at them.

NFL best advantage of being at home

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