These are the statistical power rankings going into week 6, 2016 NFL season.  EXP is found by simply adding the Offensive EXP and Defense EXP stats provided for each team at pfref.com.   (Note: these rankings are statistically driven, not based on win/loss records or subjective “touchy feely” thoughts.)

I’ll try to explain EXP (to the extent I understand it myself).  Let’s suppose a team has the ball 2nd down and 2 to go at the opponent’s 2-yard-line.  How many points would you expect that team to score on the next play?  Most of the time they’ll get 7 points (adding in the extra point), but sometimes they won’t score.  The folks at pfref.com sifted through about a decade of play-by-play stats and came up with an average number of points scored in exactly that situation (2nd and 2 at the 2), which comes out to be 5.72 points.  So, 5.72 is the baseline, you might say.  Similar baseline numbers can be had for all possible down, distance, and yard-line scenarios using this method. If the team scores a TD on that play, then that means the offense outperformed the baseline (7 – 5.72 = 1.28) by 1.28 points, so the offense gets a net score of +1.28 for that particularly play.  (Defense gets a -1.28 for that play.)  If they had failed to score the offense would have gotten a -5.72 for the play.  EXP is found by adding up all the plays in the game to come up with a composite net score (excluding some end-of-half plays, such as kneeling to run out the clock).

In a nutshell, you might think of EXP as a summation of how each team performed on each play versus established baselines for how teams have historically performed in those same circumstances.  A more detailed explanation of EXP can be found on their blog.

 

EXP Rank Team
59.22 1 Philadelphia Eagles
47.88 2 Minnesota Vikings
46.19 3 Denver Broncos
39.13 4 Pittsburgh Steelers
38.78 5 Buffalo Bills
37.37 6 Dallas Cowboys
35.87 7 Atlanta Falcons
26.54 8 Green Bay Packers
25.56 9 New England Patriots
23.69 10 Arizona Cardinals
22.42 11 Seattle Seahawks
16.23 12 San Diego Chargers
4.53 13 Tennessee Titans
0.79 14 Carolina Panthers
-2 15 Oakland Raiders
-2.65 16 Baltimore Ravens
-4.62 17 Houston Texans
-6.56 18 Cincinnati Bengals
-13 19 Washington Redskins
-14.06 20 Jacksonville Jaguars
-14.93 21 New Orleans Saints
-19.2 22 Kansas City Chiefs
-19.44 23 Chicago Bears
-21.41 24 San Francisco 49ers
-22.33 25 Detroit Lions
-29.07 26 New York Giants
-35.28 27 Cleveland Browns
-36.74 28 New York Jets
-37.57 29 Indianapolis Colts
-45.86 30 Los Angeles Rams
-46.69 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-52.79 32 Miami Dolphins

Follow me on twitter at @mean__mark if you’d like to be notified whenever I update this blog.

Advertisements